The global supply of whole coconuts is increasingly constrained due to adverse weather conditions affecting several major producing nations of this commodity. The surge in coconut prices in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines has become an unavoidable phenomenon. According to a Bloomberg report, the Philippines, the world’s largest coconut producer, anticipates a production decline of up to 20% this year as a consequence of extreme weather.
Prolonged drought and tropical cyclones over the past two years have weakened the vitality of coconut palms, including those in export-oriented plantations along the southern coast of the archipelago.
“The primary factor behind the low supply is climate change. This condition is causing reduced harvests, harvest delays, and limited farmer mobility,” said Henry Raperoga, President and COO of Axelum Resources Corp, as quoted by Bloomberg on Monday, April 28, 2025.
Other producing countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, are also experiencing pressure on their supplies due to unfavorable weather conditions and increased domestic consumption. In Sri Lanka, wholesale coconut prices at the weekly auction in the capital Colombo have more than doubled in the past year. This situation follows a significant drop in yields resulting from a combination of severe weather and plant diseases.
As a consequence of these conditions, the local government approved producers’ request to import coconut kernels in February to alleviate market pressure. In Malaysia, the significant price escalation has prompted some traders to temporarily halt their operations, while consumers are advised to switch to alternatives like cooking cream or yogurt for curries, sauces, and baked goods.
Referring to a Channel News Asia report from early February 2025, producers in the state of Perak have reported a decline in productivity since March 2024, characterized by coconut trees yielding fewer kernels. It is strongly suspected that extreme weather conditions are the primary factor behind this decrease in productivity.
This situation has been confirmed by one of the largest coconut suppliers in Peninsular Malaysia. The business entity reported a drastic decline in productivity levels on the plantations they manage through leasing arrangements, reaching figures of 80 to 90%. In a statement conveyed to the Bernama news agency, the owner of Anba P Sarasvathy revealed that currently, the 420,000 coconut trees on their plantation are only able to produce approximately 2,000 to 2,500 coconuts every two days. This number represents a significant decrease compared to the previous production ranging from 10,000 to 15,000 coconuts within the same time period.
“Our coconut trees appear healthy, yet their production has declined significantly. I have never before encountered a drop in output of this magnitude,” Sarasvathy stated to Bernama.
According to data compiled by the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the export volume of whole coconuts under HS code 08011200 during the January to February 2025 period reached 70,432 tons. This figure indicates an increase of 56.28% compared to the same period in the previous year, which recorded a volume of 45,066 tons. In line with the increase in the export volume of coconut commodities, the foreign exchange earnings received by Indonesia also experienced a threefold surge, from US$10.37 million in the January to February 2024 period to US$30.71 million in the first two months of 2025.
Faced with the phenomenon of high prices and tight supply, Indonesia, as the world’s second-largest coconut producer, is reportedly considering several strategic policies to achieve market stabilization. Some of the options under consideration include the imposition of an export ban for a period of three to six months, the implementation of export levies, and the establishment of benchmark prices in response to the price surge that has reached up to 150% in the last three months.
by:
Briandy Effendi
Sales Executive
WhatsApp: +62 812-9777-8860 | E-Mail: sales@centralcoconut.co.id
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